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View Full Version : Swine Flu: Just the Latest Chapter in a 91-Year Pandemic Era



News
06-30-2009, 02:41 PM
Influenza viruses related to the current H1N1 swine flu virus have been circulating for at least 91 years. Scientists say understanding the history is important to handling pandemics.http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~at/qqH6diOKRYoxz-BrD4Dfm9jBvyQ/0/di (http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~at/qqH6diOKRYoxz-BrD4Dfm9jBvyQ/0/da)
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lilith
07-22-2009, 09:14 PM
So, that article posted by News (senior member don'cha know) says it probably won't be a big deal... while this article says it probably will be! :(


An Important Paper By An Informed Author

Barry, John (2009). WHITE PAPER ON NOVEL H1N1. Engineering Systems
Division Working Paper Series ESD-WP-2009-07. (19 pgs).
http://esd.mit.edu/WPS/2009/esd-wp-2009-07.pdf

BTW: John Barry wrote the book The Great Influenza about the 1918 flu
epidemic.

"............Three of the preceding four pandemics, 1889, 1918, and
1957, show clear evidence of some fairly intense but sporadic initial
local outbreaks scattered around the world.

The novel H1N1 virus seems thus far to be following the pattern of those
three pandemics, and it seems highly likely that it will return in full
flower. If the virus is fully adapted to and efficient at infecting
humans, this would occur soon, possibly during the influenza season in
the southern hemisphere or possibly a few months later in the northern
hemisphere. The 1918 and 1957 viruses both exploded in September and
October in the northern hemisphere, even though this is not the
influenza season.

If the virus needs further adaptation to become fully efficient in
infecting humans, that could be delayed, quite possibly a year or two
later. It seems very unlikely that this virus will peter out.

The most disturbing information molecular biology has provided is that,
according to scientists at CDC and elsewhere, "genetic markers
predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in the
[H1N1] viruses, suggesting previously unrecognized determinants could be
responsible for transmission."27 This suggests two things: first, this
virus may have other things to teach us; second, we do not know the
whole story of how influenza becomes transmissible from human to human,
so our monitoring of H5N1 for these markers is incomplete........."


Thanks To Patricia Reynolds, MLIS / Director, Bishopric Medical Library
/ Sarasota Memorial Hospital / Posting To Medlib- list

[Who Thanked Alicia Livinsky at NLM for The HeadsUp].

Ninjahedge
07-23-2009, 08:55 AM
K.

They are testing the latest vaccine, probably be a bit before we know the results.