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Swine Flu: Just the Latest Chapter in a 91-Year Pandemic Era

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  • Swine Flu: Just the Latest Chapter in a 91-Year Pandemic Era

    Influenza viruses related to the current H1N1 swine flu virus have been circulating for at least 91 years. Scientists say understanding the history is important to handling pandemics.




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  • #2
    So, that article posted by News (senior member don'cha know) says it probably won't be a big deal... while this article says it probably will be!

    An Important Paper By An Informed Author

    Barry, John (2009). WHITE PAPER ON NOVEL H1N1. Engineering Systems
    Division Working Paper Series ESD-WP-2009-07. (19 pgs).
    http://esd.mit.edu/WPS/2009/esd-wp-2009-07.pdf

    BTW: John Barry wrote the book The Great Influenza about the 1918 flu
    epidemic.

    "............Three of the preceding four pandemics, 1889, 1918, and
    1957, show clear evidence of some fairly intense but sporadic initial
    local outbreaks scattered around the world.

    The novel H1N1 virus seems thus far to be following the pattern of those
    three pandemics, and it seems highly likely that it will return in full
    flower. If the virus is fully adapted to and efficient at infecting
    humans, this would occur soon, possibly during the influenza season in
    the southern hemisphere or possibly a few months later in the northern
    hemisphere. The 1918 and 1957 viruses both exploded in September and
    October in the northern hemisphere, even though this is not the
    influenza season.

    If the virus needs further adaptation to become fully efficient in
    infecting humans, that could be delayed, quite possibly a year or two
    later. It seems very unlikely that this virus will peter out.

    The most disturbing information molecular biology has provided is that,
    according to scientists at CDC and elsewhere, "genetic markers
    predictive of adaptation to humans are not currently present in the
    [H1N1] viruses, suggesting previously unrecognized determinants could be
    responsible for transmission."27 This suggests two things: first, this
    virus may have other things to teach us; second, we do not know the
    whole story of how influenza becomes transmissible from human to human,
    so our monitoring of H5N1 for these markers is incomplete........."


    Thanks To Patricia Reynolds, MLIS / Director, Bishopric Medical Library
    / Sarasota Memorial Hospital / Posting To Medlib- list

    [Who Thanked Alicia Livinsky at NLM for The HeadsUp].
    Ha-Ha! Made Ya Read!

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    • #3
      K.

      They are testing the latest vaccine, probably be a bit before we know the results.

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